update news: Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil

Update to this chart http://stocktwits.com/message/13001528If we just focus on the move that started from $97.77 we have a basis to find a trade, the long term picture has not moved in over 2 years, but there have been plenty of smaller setups we could have traded.It can be counted as a 5 wave decline, there is enough gyrations, but i suspect that with the wave Gold and Silver are looking we should see further downside in all 3 markets.

If you look at Silver is relatively weak compared to Gold and it actually looks like a triangle much like the idea shown on Oil.This could also pop to around $89.30 and still be fine for wave [iv] as its well under the standard fibbo retrace of 38.2% of wave [iii].Corrections are difficult at the best of times, and 4th waves are the worst wave of them all, this is where i tend to hedge ideas and allow for many ideas, so scale in positions and allow for variations in the ideas such as this idea, that way you don't continually get stopped and chopped to pieces.Much above $91 is likely to suggest the idea in blue and we indeed have completed a 5 wave decline from $97.77.If it moves lower now for wave [v], then i am targeting $84.00, so a decent move.Staying under $88.75 supports the triangle idea as shown.We can use $91.00 as the bull/bear area short term.